Standard Chartered Raises China’s Economic Growth Outlook for 2025

International bank Standard Chartered has revised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2025, increasing it from 4.5% to 4.8%. This decision is driven by economic activity levels in the first two months of the current year being higher than expected, as well as positive data from the March Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey. This move highlights the bank’s confidence in the gradual recovery of the world’s second-largest economy, despite ongoing global economic risks.

Drivers Behind the Revision

Several key factors have influenced China’s economic trajectory at the start of the year, forming the basis for this revised forecast. Notably:

• Recovery of Consumer Demand: China is exhibiting strong growth in domestic consumption, attributed to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the increase in retail sales.
• Strengthening of Industrial Production: Data reflects growth in production volumes across pivotal economic sectors, including manufacturing, electronics, and construction.
• Growth in Export Volumes: Despite geopolitical challenges and a slowing global market, China’s export levels remain high, sustaining economic resilience.

Economic Activity Indicators in Early 2023

Amid challenging global economic conditions, China’s PMI in March showed positive outcomes. This crucial indicator, which measures business activity in the manufacturing sector, rose above 50 points, signaling business expansion and increased activity.

Another important metric is China’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter. According to estimates by Standard Chartered, it likely slowed to an annual rate of 5.2%, compared to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of the previous year. Despite this, the Chinese economy maintains a strong growth rate in the face of global uncertainties.

Three Strategic Directions for Stimulating China’s Economy

To sustain growth rates and achieve new targets, China’s leadership focuses on the following priorities:

• Stimulating the Domestic Market: Increasing household incomes and investing in social programs contribute to the stability of domestic demand.
• Supporting the Technology Sector: Deepening investment in innovation and high technologies not only fosters economic growth but also strengthens China’s position as a global tech leader.
• Promoting Green Initiatives: China aims to implement more eco-friendly production methods and develop renewable energy sources.

Key Takeaways for the Global Market

Standard Chartered’s increased growth forecast for China has significant implications for the international economy. The resilience of China’s economy supports the stability of the Asian region, positively impacts commodity markets, and stimulates further recovery of supply chains.

Simultaneously, this forecast revision signals a strong and confident market sentiment regarding the long-term outlook for the world’s second-largest economy. This environment creates favorable conditions for investment growth and strengthening international economic ties.

Additional Considerations

China’s economy remains influenced by factors such as:

1. potential new geopolitical challenges;
2. global inflationary trends;
3. currency fluctuations impacting exports.

However, a comprehensive strategy of economic stimulus and business activity assessments allows analysts to suggest that China can achieve sustainable growth and meet its economic targets for 2025.